Research
My research broadly examines how households and markets respond to economic constraints, with work spanning labor markets, food prices, agriculture, and the methods used to measure these outcomes.
Citations and metrics are also on Google Scholar.
Publications and working papers
2026
The Overeducation Trap: Household Wealth and Education-Occupation Mismatch Among College Graduates in the Philippines
Aubrey JolexEducation Economics
A 48.6 percentage point mismatch gap separates graduates from the poorest and richest income deciles, using FIES-LFS data on 198,343 employed graduates (2009-2023).
48.6 pp
mismatch gap
2026
Does home food production insure against food price shocks? Evidence from matched subsistence and market households in the Philippines
Aubrey Jolex, Mariel Antoinette FelizardoCogent Economics & Finance
Market households show a price elasticity of -0.36, while matched subsistence households show near-zero elasticity (+0.05).
0.41
elasticity difference
2026
Code in the Machine: Can Large Language Models Reproduce Econometric Analyses?
Aubrey JolexWorking Paper WP2026_07
Tests where LLM-assisted econometric replication succeeds, where it fails, and where human judgment is still essential.
Presented at the World Bank and CEGA Measuring Development Conference 2026
2024
A New Approach to Monitoring Farmer Prices: Method and an Application to Malawi
Bob Baulch, Seng Kiong Kok, Aubrey JolexThe Journal of Development Studies
Develops and tests a crowdsourcing approach to farmer price monitoring using radio jingles, a toll-free call centre, and incentives for price reports.
2024
Welfare Impacts of Seasonal Maize Price Fluctuations in Malawi
Levison Chiwaula, Joachim De Weerdt, Jan Duchoslav, Joseph Goeb, Anderson Gondwe, Aubrey JolexMaSSP Working Paper 45
A stable maize price would modestly increase total social surplus across a year, but sharply reduce hunger during the lean season.
+6%
welfare gain for the poor
2022
Influence of Agricultural Extension Services on Technical Efficiency of Maize Farmers in Malawi
Aubrey JolexAfrican Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Access to agricultural extension services is associated with higher technical efficiency among maize farmers (IHS5, stochastic frontier and propensity score matching).
+4%
technical efficiency
2022
Crowding Out Effects of Alcohol Consumption Expenditure on Household Resource Allocation in Malawi
Aubrey Jolex, Ben KaluwaPLOS ONE
Alcohol spending crowds out budget shares for food, clothing, education, and other household needs.
2022
The Effect of ICT Use on the Profitability of Young Agripreneurs in Malawi
Aubrey Jolex, Adane TufaSustainability
Among 317 young farmers in Lilongwe and Dedza, more intensive ICT use is linked to a higher probability of high profits.
+18%
probability of high profits
Other working papers
Selected policy and research outputs
- Baulch, B., & Jolex, A. (2021). Mixed Fortunes: Prices Paid to Soybean Farmers Have Improved in 2021...But Not Those to Maize Farmers. MaSSP Policy Note 41.
- Benson, T., & Jolex, A. (2022). Key Facts Sheet on Agricultural Commercialization. MaSSP Key Facts, January 2022.
- Benson, T., & Jolex, A. (2022). Key Facts Sheet on Employment. MaSSP Key Facts, May 2022.
- Banda, C., De Weerdt, J., Duchoslav, J., & Jolex, A. (2022). Self-targeted Fertilizer Subsidies. MaSSP Policy Note 48.